The Belmont Stakes Preview

I'll go horse by horse to preview the third and final race in the Triple Crown. Of course, there won't be a horse to win it this year, but Calvin Borel has won both the Derby and the Preakness aboard Mine That Bird and Rachel Alexandra, respectively.

The Belmont is a different animal. There's a reason they call it "The Test of Champions." A mile and a quarter is a reach for most 3-year-olds, and that's the first Crown race in the Kentucky Derby. The Belmont, for horses like Mine That Bird, will be the third long race in 5 weeks, a schedule that only the elite horses can endure. We saw last year what happened to Big Brown. Was he tired? Was it the lack of steroids? Was it the loose horseshoe? We'll never know. We do know that he finished last. The mile-and-a-half marathon is a grueling test of endurance, and usually, it's about strategy. None of these horses have gone more than a mile and a quarter, so it will be interesting to see who can last that final quarter mile.

1. Chocolate Candy - 10/1 - Garrett Gomez
Chocolate Candy is a horse who ran in the Derby, but skipped the Preakness. The Derby was also his first run on real dirt. He had been racing in California on synthetic surfaces, and racing well. He was second to Pioneerof the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby. 'Nile' was second to Mine That Bird in the Derby, but didn't show much in the Preakness. I think the break will help Chocolate Candy, and having Garrett Gomez aboard can't hurt either. His running style will help as well. Consider him a sleeper.

2. Dunkirk - 4/1 - John Velasquez
Here's a horse who was highly touted coming into the Derby, but ended up finishing up the track in 11th. He did stumble at the start, and he probably wasn't a fan of the wet track that day. I think the Derby is somewhat of a crapshoot, and if you get in behind a wall of horses, you're all but done. He finished second to Quality Road in the Florida Derby. Quality Road was among the Derby favorites before being pulled out with a foot injury. You can never count out Todd Pletcher, or Johnny V. for that matter. I wouldn't leave him out of your trifecta, especially since he starts from the 2 hole.

3. Mr. Hot Stuff - 15/1 - Edgar Prado
Here's another horse who had been racing exclusively in California before heading to Louisville for the Derby. It took him 5 races to break his maiden, and the connections immediately put him in a Grade 3 race. That move was probably met with skepticism, but he validated it by finishing 3rd in The Sham at Santa Anita. He followed that up with another 3rd, this time in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, right behind Belmont rival Chocolate Candy. This being his 3rd Gr. 1 race, he may be a bit more experienced, but I'd stay away.

4. Summer Bird - 12/1 - Kent Desormeaux
Another Derby contender who skipped the Preakness here. His breeding indicates he might be able to handle the distance, as he's the son of 2004 Belmont winner Birdstone. Ran 6th in the Derby at 43/1, and his running line said he had a good, 7-wide run. Any horse able to finish well going 7-wide has some ability. 3 of his 4 races have been routes, so we'll see what he does with the added distance. Because of his running style and bloodlines, call him a sleeper.

5. Luv Gov - 20/1 - Miguel Mena
Miguel Mena is a jockey that has spent some time in the Chicagoland area. He rode at Arlington and was OK, but not great. His horse tomorrow broke his maiden on Derby day with Mena aboard, and came back to run 8th in the Preakness. He didn't really show anything there, expect more of the same tomorrow.

6. Charitable Man - 3/1 - Alan Garcia
This Triple Crown-nominated colt will be making his first appearance in the Triple Crown. His last race was the Gr. 2 Peter Pan on May 9th at Belmont. He won that race in front-running fashion. He also won the Gr. 2 Futurity back in September, also at Belmont. His record at Belmont could be why Mike Watchmaker set him at lower odds than Dunkirk. In his only Gr. 1 race, he finished 7th. That was in the Bluegrass at Keeneland, which has a synthetic surface. That was his only race on the fake stuff, so we can probably throw that one out. He appears to be one of the only speed horses, so he may be able to steal this one if he shakes loose in front and slow the race down.

7. Mine That Bird -2/1 - Calvin Borel
Tom Durkin didn't even know who he was when he dominated the stretch at the Derby. Borel moved him right up the rail for a monstrous upset. Mine That Bird proved that it wasn't that big of an upset though, finishing a hard-charging second to Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness. I think he simply just ran out of room in that race. I think that's why he's the favorite in this race. He saves his best for last, and I think he may be the horse that has the best chance of finishing strong. Plus, Borel is going for his personal Triple Crown. He would be the first jockey ever to win the three races on two different horses. You can't leave him out, even if he's 1/2 on the odds board.

8. Flying Private - 12/1 - Julien Leparoux
Here's one of the few horses who has run both Crown races so far, so you can expect him to be a bit tired. He finished dead last in the Derby, but improved greatly in the Preakness, finishing 4th. He's just 1-for-12 in his career, and I don't expect that number to improve here. Looks like his good bloodlines (Fusaichi Pegasus is his sire and he's got Unbridled on his mother's side) haven't helped him yet. Maybe his best days are ahead of him.

9. Miner's Escape - 15/1 - Jose Lezcano
Here's another Crown-nominated horse that will be making his Triple Crown debut. This Nick Zito-trainee has won two in a row, but those two include his maiden-breaker and a minor stake. He hasn't gone longer than a mile and an eighth, so expect him to be very tired coming down the stretch. Jose Lezcano is 22-for-97 at Belmont this year, but that may be the only thing this horse has going for it.

10. Brave Victory - 15/1 - Rajiv Maragh
Yet another colt that was nominated, but it making his Triple Crown debut. Hasn't won since January, and hasn't been closer than 4 and 3/4 lengths in his three subsequent starts. Maragh lost the whip in his last start, but he still rallied in that race, the Gr. 2 Peter Pan. Also hasn't been farther than a mile and an eighth, so this will be a marathon to him.

My picks
Win: Mine That Bird
Place: Dunkirk
Show: Charitable Man
Fourth: Summer Bird